Posted by

Round 1 Wrap Up

That was fun.

If there was a bracket fever for NHL playoffs like there is for March Madness, it would be safe to say that nearly everybody would have a brutally busted bracket. Unless of course, you’re a monkey or squid or Llama (God I wish they would have a Llama picking winners on TSN, I’d call him Larry) with insanely high accuracy, proving that no body really knows anything.
Here are a few quick hits from where I’m sitting.
Los Angeles 4 – Vancouver 1

As a Canucks fan, it is near impossibly to hate the Kings. Their team is a very dangerous force, and flew under the radar because they could not win a game if they gave up more than 2 goals. However, they have a winning formula with a vezina caliber goalie, a dynamic defenseman like Doughty, offensive talent with Brown, Kopitar, Richards, Carter not to mention the right amount of grit that is needed for a playoff run.
The Canucks will have a very intriguing off season, with rumors of Luongo demanding a trade that appears to be a mutual feeling with Mike Gillis and crew. The Canucks need to unload Luongo for any offer they get, clearly they’ll weigh options and try to maximize it. Even if they take a contract in return that is in the 3 – 4.5 M range that frees up a fair amount of space to sign another solid player, or help lock up Schneider to a contract. I don’t believe other teams will undervalue Luongo as much as fans may, and Gillis has a chance to gear the team up for another cup run. It may be hard to fire Vigneault, but the thought must come up in conversation, but when he has just won two Presidents’ Trophies in two years, with the team not showing a quit on him, he deserves a fair shot at at least one more season.
New York 4 – Ottawa 3

It is not where near the result the Senators wanted in the end of things, but something tells me if you would of told their fan base that they would have taken #1 seed to game 7 of the first round, only to lose by 1 goal, they would laugh you off. But funny things can happen with a team who gets solid, eventually and when healthy, goaltending from Anderson and has a kid in Karlsson who went from a -30 and a .6 point per game player to a +16, .96 point per game Norris finalist. It is a shame Gonchar is a brutal shell of what he was otherwise this series could have gone the other way. The future is bright, despite the uncertainty of their captain, in Ottawa, and providing Karlsson doesn’t dip too badly, it is a rare situation where a first round loss is not a bad result. Perhaps it is not ideal, but, it is definitely a very positive result.
The Rangers have what it takes to make a deep run. Which is not profound or news, but have now show they have what it takes to buckle down and win a big Game 7. The future is now with young talent stepping up and taking big minutes, along with their stars who can snipe with the best of them when they are going in Richards and Gaborik. pair that with very solid defense and the very talented Lundqvist. Teamed with players such as born to be captain Callahan, and this team looks a lot like the Kings in the west to me.
Washington 4 – Boston 3

The Bruins just did not have the depth to get it done, beyond their top two lines they had cogs in the grindstone machine on their 3rd and 4th lines. Maybe they were not as hungry, maybe not having players like Mark Recchi hurt more than anticipated. Either way you slice it, they had a hard fought series and lost on a maybe it should not count type goal, but they have a lot of decisions to make in the off season. Thomas created a circus this year on numerous occasions and is 38, while they have a stud on the bench in Rask. Teams like Tampa Bay who many believe would be in on the Luongo sweepstakes could take a hard look at Thomas if he is available. He is older, but he only has a year left on his contract and potential for signing a shorter term contract after the final year. He may be more attractive for the short term, so perhaps Tampa would be more interested in going that route and hoping any of their younger goalies like Tokarski becomes NHL ready. That being said, no one wants a Roloson situation again.
Washington had been the sweetheart pick for a few years to make a cup run and just could not quite get there as the favorites. So perhaps now, with a fierce coach who isn’t afraid to sit his stars to get the results needed may play the underdog card just perfectly to make a run. and if being 6th in minute in Game 7 for forwards does not motivate Ovechkin to play at his top level, then nothing will It is incredibly difficult for a young goalie, never mind a goalie who has played as many regular season games as he has playoff games, to play at a high level such as Holtby has done. The Caps have finally bought into the system Dale Hunter has in place and if I am in that locker room, and I just knocked off the Bruins, I would follow Hunter to the end of the earth. It did not happen before, so why not now?
Phoenix 4 – Chicago 2

Every now and then you run into a very good goalie, who plays like an all-universe goalie. Toews, Kane, Seabrook, Keith, those names will always keep you in contention every year. However when you have Corey Crawford as your guy, it will not cut it, as evident by the brutal OT goals given up. I think Chicago will look, with minimal success, for a goalie this offseason and have to hope that Crawford works hard and figures it out for next season.
It is a shame that Tampa Bay never had a goaltender who could stop the puck on a consistent basis…oh wait
Mike Smith, SV% in 6 games, a mere .950 with a 1.81 GAA. That will do, I guess, if you are into amazing goaltending with highlight reel saves.
I’m not sure how long they can keep this pace up, with taking nearly every game to OT and giving up leads very late several times, so I would look for the the Predators to have more success than Chicago did. That being said, if Smith can put up close to those numbers, it will be a great run to watch.
Not much else to say besides that defensive core looks very strong, their future is bright and to think if they can keep Yandle and Ekman-Larsson in the fold with studs in the minors like Gormley and Rundblad they will continue to be an absolute thorn in the side of anyone they play in the next few seasons. I’m not sure how long they can keep this pace up, with taking nearly every game to OT and giving up leads very late several times
Philadelphia 4 – Pittsburgh 2

Philly figured out the formula to beat the Penguins. It was much the way Chicago did it against Vancouver a few years ago. Pester, annoy, win every scrum you possibly can. That does not necessarily mean win in the physical sense, but when you have James Neal getting himself suspended for a game, Sidney Crosby jawing, being heavily involved in post whistle activity, fighting and swatting gloves away, Malkin being frustrated and shut down by a rookie, you know you have it figured out. If Bryzgalov can figure it out, which is no guarantee as seen in the playoffs for the Coyotes last year, then the Flyers have a shot to meet the Rangers in a very exciting rematch of the Winter Classic.
What if? That will be the main theme in the off season for the Penguins. What if Crosby did not get reinjured, James Neal didn’t have to carry your team for the first few games of Round 1, if Fleury did not look worse than he did in the World Juniors when he was scoring on his own net. That is the beauty of sports though, it doesn’t matter about what happened in the past, it is about the now, what have you done in the playoffs. The Penguins were not mentally there, when you play with emotions, the hate puts out the competitive fire and removes focus from the task at hand. Winning.  The cornerstones of this franchise may not have had a strong, or even moderately good, post season but when you have Letang, Staal, Fleury, Neal, Crosby, Malkin as those corner stones, it is not time to panic. It is however, a long time to wait to being to avenge yourself before next season starts.
Nashville 4 – Detroit 1

No wonder Detroit was irate that Radulov was allowed to return.
Is it nearing the end of the cycle of success that is Detroit? Probably not their playoff streak, but their contender status will not be there as it was after this season. Especially considering if Lidstrom retires. Their top guys will be all over 31. Detroit always rebuilds without losing its key pieces even when they’re top level contenders, but you cannot always think find gems like Datsyuk (okay, well, maybe Detroit can but that is yet to be seen for recent years). At worst, Detroit frees up a fair amount of salary with Lidstrom and Holmstrom potentially gone, and best case Lidstrom sticks around for another fantastic season.
Nashville was a very popular pick as a dark horse, so much so that they lost the dark horse status even before the playoffs began. With players such as Rinne, Weber, Suter, Radulov, Fischer, Gaustad, Klein, an emergence of Gabriel Bourque. That is a formidable list, with solid depth. They have a great coach, a great and very loud arena and star power across their own end, with Radulov who may not be at his top level yet but makes his opposition ensure they are accounting for him which frees up their other scorers. They will be a fun team to watch, and it is no surprise they were on so many lists for a solid run.

St. Louis 4 – San Jose 1

It is time to call ACME and get a dramatic TNT cutscene. Blow it up. They have some decent pieces that you need, such as Burns and Vlassic, Galiardi, Winnik, but those names are not exactly blow you away talent, but they are valuable pieces to a winner. Players such as Couture, Pavelski are very solid players and have a lot of time left. The same cannot be said for the seemingly uninterested Marleau, “But he gets assists” Thorton and the “Seriously how did he win a cup” Niemi. Martin Havlat wasn’t meant to be a key piece, but he is still on the team and has never really shown to be big i the playoffs. Big contracts, big headaches, big problems in San Jose and it’s time to push the TNT plunger down and rebuild.

Halak, Elliot, it does not matter. With a young and solid defensive core in Pietrangelo, Shattekirk, and a very sneaky potentially lethal offense it all amounts to a dangerous combination. Even though they finished 2nd in the West, they did not garner the respect of many. Sure they would get through San Jose but what about after? The question could still be posed, but, they are as healthy as ever and if they can get respectable production from the likes of Mcdonald, Berglund, Perron and Backes they will be in very nice shape. It will be a defensive hard fought match up against the Kings, and whoever can capitalize on the minimal chances that will happen will take it.

New Jersey 4 – Florida 3

Turning back the hands of time. Martin Brodeur had a strong Game 7. If he can dig deep and give it one last solid month of play, and the Devils can stay healthy, it is possible they can do some damage against the Flyers. Probably not win their next round, but provide some entertaining games. With Zajac, Parise, Henrique, Kovalchuk swarming Bryzgalov, it will prove to be a challenge. 

Who knew Theodore would be respectable again in the playoffs? Tough loss for Florida, there are certainly positives to take away from this season. Gubrandson looks like the real deal, as does Kulikov. With scoring help on the way in the form of Huberdeau if he can get himself NHL ready by next year. If Markstrom can get and stay healthy, he will be at worse equal to Theodore and the ceiling is very high. He may not be ready by next year, but fans can definitely be pleased with the way their team is shaping up.

Round 2 predictions

Kings beat Blues in 6
I think the depth is going to be put the test for both teams. I just think the Kings will get it done when it matters most.
Nashville beats Phoenix in 5
Mike Smith can only stand on his head for so long. Luckily for Nashville, while Smith is playing hero, Rinne will be equally up to the task unlike Crawford was for Chicago.
Rangers beat Capitals in 6
Holtby can’t possibly be that good again… right? I think the Capitals are coming in with more confidence, but the Rangers take care of business with Lundqvist playing like a Conn Smythe waiting to happen.
For fun, I will call a sweep Flyers beat Devils in 4.
I do not believe in Brodeur for the long grind of the playoffs, Kovalchuk looks hampered out there and the shutdown abilities of the Flyers were shown in Game 7 and I look to see that continuing into this round.
Tagged ,

Big Bad Bruins

The Boston Bruins of 2011 have greatly affected the Canucks of 2012 and beyond. 

You, as the Vancouver Canucks, are a favorite to win the Stanley Cup. You have potential Calder Candidate (Cody Hodgson) who is producing at a high level from a 3rd line role. Granted, he isn’t the 3rd line guy you would ideally want to shut down the opposing players’ top lines, but he gives you great depth in case one of your top 6 players struggles or gets injured. At worst, you get solid point production from three lines, and hyper-focus your 4th line with your top shut down guys since most teams aren’t rolling two lines deep with elite scoring talent. Even if they do, you counter balance it anyway with three lines who can score at a good pace.

But, most teams don’t win without unsung heroes coming from anywhere beyond your top line right? Sammy Pahlsson was an absolute beast … five years ago in 2007. He is now 34. It would seem Gillis watched the Ducks run in ’07 and absolutely needed to get him. I don’t mind the trade, gives fine depth, but he shouldn’t be someone you want to come in and replace or even come close to Hodgson’s point per game total. 

Teams who have unsung heroes have them because they don’t have the established depth already in place. To feel that you need those guys to step up is a fallacy when you’ve already got it. Mike Gillis absolutely out-thought himself on his trade deadline this year. Say what you will, while the Canucks were not physically imposing, it is not even close to the reason they lost. They lost because they didn’t capitalize on their powerplay chances, or scoring chances in general, in a lot of those games. Adding a offensive weapon like Hodgson this year, as he wasn’t even playing in the finals last year, in itself is as good as a great deadline deal that upgades your team vastly from last year to this. 

Zach Kassian is a project. He won’t make an impact on your roster for at least a year, maybe two. Power Forwards who are rookies are often like shutdown defencemen: it takes a bit to get there. It’s not a matter of will, and sometimes, not even skill; the physical maturity is just not there yet. There are exceptions, such as Lucic, but he is a freak of nature. Do you really want Kassian squaring off with Lucic at this point in his career? He would be annihilated, and that isn’t Kassian’s fault, he just isn’t ready yet. He couldn’t crack Buffalo’s lineup, so why expect to put him in anywhere and have him be effective? He isn’t sound enough in his own end to play a shut down role. He doesn’t fit anywhere else and is nothing more than a plug on the 4th line. Gillis easily could have traded for Pahlsson, made sure you have someone to compliment Malhotra, and that’s it.

Gillis tried to build to the future when the present is their chance to win. While Hodgson had issues with the coach, and his agent is a complete joke, he came in every game and played very well, regardless of personal unhappiness. Trade him after this year’s Cup run. If it’s not broke, don’t attempt to fix it. The Canucks were crushing the league for a while, and Hodgson was playing a vital role. There is no evidence to suggest that would have slowed down. In fact, he picked up his game considerably between the start of the year and the day he was traded.

The trade made for Kassian isn’t specifically to blame, not entirely. But, how much more comfortable do you think the Canucks are with someone who can get points on the board like Hodgson, compared to Pahlsson needing to rekindle his 5 year old magic, and Kassian getting less than 4 minutes per game? Losing your top scorer is hard to predict, but the teams who stay the healthiest usually win, and if they’re not healthy, they have scoring depth. To take out a solid offensive contributor in lieu of a long term project who is anything but a sure thing, when your time to win is today, is a losing philosophy. Gillis saw something that wasn’t there; it was the ghost of the big bad Bruins punishing the Canucks.

The toughness and lack of response on the scoresheet in the Stanley Cup finals ultimately pushed this deal to happen. The hopes that Kassian would magically find a game he doesn’t yet posses to replicate when Hodgson was putting out was an incredibly long shot. Adding grit to your lineup is great, but it doesn’t automtically replace offense. If the Canucks fired at their season average of roughly 25% on the PP opposed to 6% during the last Cup finals, there would be no urgency and overreaction of dropping a “weak” Hodgson and adding someone to protect the team but still score like they wanted Kassian to do. Just because you want someone to be something doesn’t mean they will be. 

Very dissapointing post season for Vancouver, and there is no way to tell if Hodgson would have made any difference. However, against a shutdown team like the Kings, you need every bit of scoring you can get and when you lose someone who was a .52 PPG and replace it with someone who is a .17 PPG player, it is a gigantic difference. Not to mention the ice time difference, or how much of a help Hodgson could have been with Daniel out for 3 games of the playoffs. All because Gillis believed his team wasn’t tough enough to win, when the real issue was the 6% powerplay percentage. Sure, Daniel Sedin could have not taken 9 punches to the face and begged the ref to stop it, but if the Canucks punished the Bruins on the PP, that wouldn’t have happened. Their goal scoring prowess should have enforced the game enough. For this season, and many seasons beyond, they have sacraficed a talented offensive playmaker for a potential no better than 3rd line power forward with a low ceiling.

 

Big Bad Bruins, wreaking havoc on the Canucks since 2011.

Hey Tim Thomas – Perhaps it is time to deflate your tires a bit

Freedom of speech. It is an amazing right that we have. Tim Thomas just exercised his freedom, and hey that is what makes the good ole’ U S of A great. But, seriously Timmy, maybe try to take one for the team. I’ll first say this much, he had every right to do what he did, but it doesn’t mean it was a right or well thought out move.

If I am Tim Thomas I put aside any disdain for the way government is run and swallow my pride to support my team. My job as an athlete breaks down to this; I get paid millions of dollars to represent my club, play to my ability and win. Financial and contractual commitments aside, I especially want to support my guys in the locker room. It is very simple to show up to the White House, nod your head, smile for a picture or two and avoid a media circus. When asked how it was to meet the president, a simple “It was great to be there and be a part of the team and see them enjoy the experience, it meant a lot to the boys to be here and it was great to be with the team.” Simple, subtle and supportive.

Do you really think any non-American truly cares to go to the White House? It is doubtful and those who do would likely be the exception, but it is a simple courtesy to the way things work and to your team to be there in support. You are not endorsing anyone, you’re not agreeing with any foreign policy or online privacy acts. You’re simply saying to yourself that the team is bigger than you, and no good can come of protesting.

If this distracts the team in the least it is a problem. Judging by direct quotes from his teammates, and not “unknown sources” it is definitely not something they are just glazing over. These are guys who share a room with him who disagree with his stance and the actions he took. Some quotes indicate they barely understood his reasoning. He did not release a preemptive statement to soften it, he released a statement after the fact on Facebook and didn’t even give a hat tip to his team that were thrilled to be there. Maybe he doesn’t owe us anything, but he does to his team. The lack of support he showed them is only amplifying the lack of support those around him have for his decisions.

He refused to talk to media, even going so far as to being first off of the ice, and out of the locker room before the media was allowed in after practice. When the story of your career starts with “My dad sold apples, then turned the profits into two bags of apples so I could sell the second, and it went on like that until we could afford goalie equipment” all the way to playing in Helsinki and then the Olympic team and finally a Stanley Cup winner; your work ethic is better than being the first guy off the ice in practice. If it is not big deal, and it is what you believe then stand  up and answer for your critics. You’re not a private citizen, you’re an idolized, championship athlete who could have put his teammates and organization ahead of himself. The sacrifice of being a super star is you in this day and age, rightly or not, lose the ability to hide in the shadows.

Good for Tim Thomas the individual to stand up for his own beliefs. Bad for the starting goaltender of the Boston Bruins for shining a huge spotlight on his team, and himself in an already pressure cooker atmosphere. What does he expect to do when he is surely asked about it in Ottawa? Or any city he visits for the next foreseeable future. Be bombarded with questions from reporters who are simply electing to exercise their freedom of speech to question his actions? Where does he hide then? If he ignores the questions eventually his teammates will get the spill over from them, it is the way the media works. It is what it is, whether he likes it or not.

Maybe it is time to stop pumping your own tires Tim,  they seem like they’re about to burst.

Peyton Manning – MVP

Peyton for MVP.

Sure, Peyton Manning is a great QB, it’s undeniable, unquestionable and unprecedented that there would be a legitimate argument to be made for  player to miss an entire season and be considered for MVP. Until this year, anyway. There have been many experts who have jokingly, or not, brought this possibility up.

I’m all for the debate. Let’s pretend that he wins, he won’t, it’s already been voted on, and there is no way he won but let’s pretend he did. Perhaps not an acceptance speech, but more so an address would be in order to the fans of the Colts. Peyton Manning shouldn’t step up to a podium, or release a statement. No, if I were a Colts fan, I’d want to hear from my insanely public, and vocal owner why he allowed his, OUR, franchise to be run so poorly that there is absolutely no contingency plan for a Peyton-less world.

Granted, you cannot predict a season ending, potentially Colts career ending neck injury. However, you cannot ignore the facts of an aging QB whose biggest weapon is himself. Who your entire team is not only centered around, he is the team. Sure Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark looked swell around Peyton, but if you’re truly a good player, you don’t need one of the best QB’s of all time to turn in a semi-productive season. Brett Favre had an heir apparent, Tom Brady had a serviceable back up turned starter,  McNabb had Kolb pushing him, the list goes on. you don’t need to draft high to be able to find one relatively useful backup in the decade you had Peyton. The elite franchises who want to be there every year, who refuse to give excuses have a plan. You can cultivate a player, teach him the system. No one can play like Peyton does, which is detrimental to the franchise, sure you can’t change the way he plays, but where is the mentor, the leadership to the young guys that he can directly help?

What backup QB has ever come out of Indy that has produced? The greatest job in football used to be that of Jim Sorgi,try telling Curtis Painter that now. The QB position is such a roller coaster, especially on bad teams, the starters per year in the NFL is insanely high, yet no one has come from Indy and succeeded,  at any position, let alone quarterback.  The Colts franchise is in disarray, and even if Manning returns he isn’t going to have the same caliber of weapons around him and there is no guarantee he is close to what he was. Suck for Luck is great to get Andrew Luck…but where are the players around him going to come from? Matthew Stafford got the cast around him, but it took a very long time and a lot of ugly losses before that happened. If I’m a fan, I need my organization to have accountability, to have any sort of long-term plan beyond “Peyton Manning…and whoever else”

Peyton should win MVP, not only because he is an elite talent, but because the lack of any sort of organizational accountability or depth to even consider life after Peyton. There is no depth on their offense, Pierre Garcon is a fine receiver, but do you want him to be your main dog out there? You have a Zero point Zero percent change at winning with Painter, you have no workhorse running back, your line scrimmage players on both sides of the ball are getting older and your defense once revered for their speed, and heart now  has been so battered and bruised that there is no one to fill in the void.

Tear down, rebuild. I’m sorry, but with the NFL this isn’t acceptable, especially considering how deep any given NFL draft is.

If you expect your franchise to compete with the best, you have to be conscious of all angles and can’t place all your eggs in one basket, regardless of how durable it has been, the game is football, it is physical. You have to be prepared, perhaps not to make a playoff push, but 1-15?

It happens to every franchise when they come to a crossroads in competing or rebuilding, but never has an implosion quite like this has happened before. So yes, Peyton for MVP, but the Colts organization absolutely left themselves in huge trouble. As a fan of the NFL, it is sad to see. The Colts have  a lot of work to do, whether Peyton is back or not, patience just may have to be key in the next 5 years for the Colts, it could get ugly.

Tagged ,
Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.